At least not to me.

Not to toot my own horn too much, but I had one of my better nights as an Oscar prognosticator today.

"Slumdog Millionaire" for Best Picture. Well, everyone saw that one coming. Me too.

"Slumdog" director Danny Boyle and Heath Ledger as Best Supporting Actor. I figured they were locks. And so they proved to be.

I was a little uncertain that Penelope Cruz would take the Best Supporting Actress prize and I had a few doubts that Kate Winslet could wrest the golden guy away from "Doubt" star Meryl Streep, but I decided to go with the two of them anyway. Bingo!

I thought Mickey Rourke's underdog-triumphant turn in "The Wrestler" would persuade voters to honor him with the Best Actor prize. But it could be his weird behavior in other awards ceremonies leading up to Oscar night might have given voters second thoughts about giving him a worldwide stage to do who knows what.

Sean Penn was certainly powerful in "Milk." And the fact that Hollywood wanted to push back against Proposition 8, California's recently adopted ban on gay marriage, and let the world know it condemned the passage of the measure likely tilted the vote in Penn's favor.

Penn's acceptance speech, in which he thanked "you commie, homo-loving sons of guns" for honoring him with the big prize struck a defiant note that went down well with the audience in the hall.

And keeping with the gracious tone of the presentation speeches given by past winners in each of the acting categories, he honored the man he beat. "Mickey Rourke rises again," Penn said, "and he is my brother." Rourke, his eyes obscured by dark glasses and wearing an enigmatic smile looked very pleased.

All in all, it was a satisfying evening as the Oscars go, though I thought Hugh Jackman was a pretty bland host. Oh, how I yearn for Billy Crystal.

And it was over by 9, remarkably speedy by Oscar standards. Though in some cases its haste worked to its detriment. And there were still far too many montages! Old habits die hard.

Having five past winners in each acting category introduce this year's nominees was an inspired new wrinkle in tonight’s telecast. The speeches made by the past winners were heartfelt and seemed incredibly sincere.

Even for those who didn’t win the big prize, the words of their compatriots had to be as valuable as gold. When Robert DeNiro praises Sean Penn, the winner of the Best Actor category for being able to lose himself in every role, calls him “a great human being” and most importantly, “my friend” that resonates. And when Anthony Hopkins asks “why do we care for a bleached-blonde bruiser” and says “we care for one good reason … Mickey Rourke.” And then he calls Rourke “a fiercely honest actor” and alludes to the reverses in life Rourke’s character and Rourke himself have experienced and finally calls him “the returning champ,” that means far more than mere metal ever can.

Those were lovely moments.

Traditionally, the Best Director award is announced just before Best Picture, the last award of the night. Not so tonight. Danny Boyle just won for "Slumdog." With Heath Ledger, he was the surest of sure things.

The order of the presentation was a surprise, but the winner was not. Next up, the Actor and Actor awards.

The favorite going into tonight’s race, “Slumdog Millionaire” is pulling away from the pack. It’s already racked up six awards, including the adapted screenplay and cinematography. Its nearest competitor is “Benjamin Button,” with three, all in technical categories. It truly is a “Slumdog” ceremony.

It was Oscar’s most touching – and arguably its most expected – moment: When the late Heath Ledger won the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. His father, mother and sister each gave gracious speeches, with his mother calling him a “compassionate and generous soul.” The stars in the hall were clearly moved, their faces attentive and contemplative.

And then, with barely time for them, and us, to catch our collective breaths and absorb what had just happened, the ceremony jumped to the awarding of the Documentary Feature prize. Oscar stepped on his most moving moment! It was almost unforgivable. If ever there was a time where it would have made sense to go to black and – I can’t believe I’m writing this – go to a commercial, this would have been it.

Philippe Petit, the wire-walking subject of the winning documentary, “Man on Wire,” balanced the Oscar on his chin and then presenter Bill Maher shamelessly promoted his documentary “Religulous,” during his speech. From a moment of genuine beauty to clowning and a crass commercial pitch in almost less time than it takes to read this. It was a shame.

Funniest moments in the first 90 minutes?

1) Ben Stiller’s bearded space-case imitation of Joaquin Phoenix, gazing off into space and wandering aimlessly around the stage during the presentation of the cinematography award?

Or

2) Or James Franco and Seth Rogen’s return to their stoner characters from “Pineapple Express” as they watched a montage of comedy movies from 2008, getting uptight when a gay kiss from “Milk” is shown then Franco turning full-guy macho, body-slammingm face-stapling madman when footage from “Wrestler” shows up? Bonus moment: when two-time Oscar winning cinematographer Janusz Kozminski (filming their bit) come out from behind the camera, plunks himself down on the sofa between them with his Oscars, and the boys wonder if there’s a way to turn to statues into marijuana pipes.

Discuss.

Vote.

Of course in the case of Stiller’s zoned-out turn, he completely overshadowed the guy who won the prize. Anyone remember who that was?

Five awards in the first 40 minutes. Must be some kind of an Oscar record. Best Supporting Actress (a breathless Penelope Cruz), Original Screenplay (“Milk”), Adapted Screenplay (“Slumdog Millionaire”), Best Animated Feature (“Wall-E”), Best Animated Short (“La Maison En Petits Cubes”). It all went by so fast it was hard to keep track.

At this rate, this thing might be over in two hours. But somehow I doubt it.

So. The Oscars. Sid Ganis, president of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, told nominees recently to expect a lot of new things at tonight’s ceremony.

The Oscar gods are promising a more exciting and suspenseful broadcast this year. Something with a “storyline,” so they say. Now it’s time to see if they mean what they say, whatever it is they’re trying to say with that tantalizingly obscure mantra.

Can we take that to mean that those endless, stupefying montages honoring deceased Hollywood luminaries, Tinseltown history and various movie genres will be deep-sixed?

We can but hope.