The size of that tax hike depends on how much money Washington gets from the feds, and how much further our state tax collections fall. (See previous post in this blog.)

Here's story that will appear in Sunday's print edition of The News Tribune.

BY Joseph Turner
joe.turner@thenewstribune.com

Prospects for a sizeable tax increase hover in the background as state lawmakers converge on Olympia this week to begin grappling with a $6 billion budget shortfall.

Budget writers in the House and Senate say it’s too soon to talk about raising taxes and there are no specific proposals yet because the budget picture is likely to change by March and April. That’s when the Legislature will be finalizing a spending plan for the next two years.

But Democrats, who hold majorities in both chambers, also have made it clear they are not going to accept all the deep cuts that Gov. Chris Gregoire, a fellow Democrat, proposed last month in her no-new-taxes budget for 2009-11.

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They aren't all named Gates, Ballmer or Chihuly. Many of the 60 Washington residents who've given more than $1 million to Barack Obama's inauguration committee are regular people who've gotten caught up in the excitement. Although several have given the maximum $50,000 (you get tickets at that level), about half have given $500 or less.

These numbers are coming directly from the committee, which is posting donor information on its Web site. To go along with D.C. reporter Les Blumenthal's story in Sunday print edition, I downloaded the Washington state donor information into a spreadsheet and did a little analysis.

Here are some of the factoids:

58: Donors from Washington state to the inauguration committee, listed as of Friday night

$18,596: Average donation

$1,115,750: Total donations

28: Number of donors giving $500 or less

17: Number giving the maximum $50,000 donation

22: Donors from Seattle

3: Donors from Pierce County

2,033: Number of donors nationwide

$27 million: Total amount raised nationwide

10th: Rank of Washington in number of donors among states and D.C.

Read on to see if you know someone on the list.

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Tax collections for the 2-month period between Nov. 11, 2008 and Jan. 10, 2009 were $134 million lower than already low expectations. That pretty much encompasses all of the Christmas shopping season.

The second of those two months was the worst. Tax collections were $98 million less than the estimate that was made as recently as Nov. 19. Tax collections for that second month were 9.4 percent worse than expected. And expectations weren't all that high to begin with.

The state expected to collect $2.64 billion in taxes over those 2 months, but collected only $2.51 billion.

"Tax payments by firms in the retail trade sector were 13.4 percent below last year," the report said for the Dec. 11-Jan 10 period.

And it's not just retail. There were 30 percent fewer real estate deals done in November 2008 than there were in November 2007, and the value of those deals was 24 percent lower, on average.

Now you see why many lawmakers, including Sen. Joe Zarelli, R-Ridgefield, say they expect the budget problem to be $7 billion by the time the next revenue forecast comes in mid-March.

It's already a $6.1 billion "problem" for the next 30 months. I don't know what to call it anymore. Shortfall? Deficit? It's getting more manufactured. That is, it's no longer a maintenance level budget. That's the kind of budget you get by spending at the same pace on programs you already have up and running.

Gov. Chris Gregoire said she was plugging a $5.7 billion gap between the amount of money the state expects to collect in taxes over the next 30 months and the amount of money she wants to spend. I say "wants" because about $220 million of that spending is brand new, not related to pay raises, or more kids in schools or keeping pace with families who want to put their kids on Medicaid.

That's not "maintenance level."

The House and Senate budget committee staffs both say the gap is now $6.1 billion. That means the $98 million in lower tax collection between Dec. 11 and Jan. 10 made the problem grow to $6.2 billion.

We can't stand many more months like that.

Here is the full tax collection report.

The Legislature convenes on Monday for a 105-day session.