Had I been good at math, I'd be a doctor or something. So, for now at least, I'm gonna let state Sen. Ed Murray, D-Seattle, explain why he thinks Referendum 71 may end up failing to make the ballot.

The referendum seeks to put before voters the issue of changing laws regarding gay partnerships – the so-called everything-but-marriage law.

Backers of the referendum (opponents of the partners law) turned in 137,689 signatures of voters. They need to have 120,577 valid signatures to make the November ballot. The secretary of state's office is now verifying the signatures to make sure they are from registered voters and are not duplicates.

That has left backers and opponents to speculate as to whether there are enough valid signatures. And they read the tea leaves of daily counts of valid vs. invalid signatures to feed the speculation.

Here is today's analysis by Murray:

Statement from Sen. Ed Murray on R-71 signature count

The current rate of invalid signatures reported by the Secretary of State’s office in the R-71 signature count gives me great hope that the referendum won’t make the ballot.

However, there’s a bit of confusion out there about how the count is trending because of an inconsistency in the math used to report the rate.

The Secretary of State’s blog first reported that the error rate had to stay under 14.2 percent for the referendum to qualify – referred to as ‘the cushion.’

That cushion was derived by dividing the number of signatures turned in (137,689) by the number needed to qualify (120,577) and subtracting 1.

With the cumulative invalid rate of 13.3 percent as of Wednesday, many have been led to believe that the referendum supporters are within their cushion.

“This is wrong.

That because in its subsequent reporting of the daily signature check, the Secretary of State’s blog reversed its math, dividing the number of signatures verified by the number examined.

It’s confusing when one method is used to determine the overall rates and the opposite method is used in the daily reports.

If the Secretary of State’s blog had first used the math that it is using now, it would have divided the total they need to verify (120,577) by the total number they will count (137,689) --and, again, subtracted 1 -- for a maximum invalid rate of 12.4 percent.

Or, if the Secretary of State’s blog were still using the math it began with, the current error rate would be 15.4 percent, rather than 13.3 percent.

We know that 15.4 percent is higher than 14.2 percent, and 13.3 percent is higher than 12.4 percent.

Either way, when consistent methods are used, the current rate of invalid signatures clearly suggests that R-71 won’t make the ballot.

We wrote a few days ago about the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee's targets for the 2010 election. None are in Washington.

U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert and the 8th District has been a target of Democrats since he was elected in 2004. It bothers Democrats that the district keeps voting for Democrats for president (Clinton, Gore, Kerry and Obama) but the party can't make inroads on the congressional seat.

Now comes the latest shot at Reichert, part of a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee effort related to the health care debate. It accuses Republicans of supporting health insurance companies, not citizens in need of affordable care.

Reichert is one of seven Republicans who will be the target of radio ads that began this week. He'll also face calls, e-mails, letters and comments on tele-conferences – the emerging electronic alternative to live townhall meetings. (Republicans and conservative groups are also urging their supporters to attend Democratic townhalls – both the live and electronic versions).

Here's the text of a radio ad aimed at Pennsylvania Rep. Charles Dent. The Reichert ads are similar:

“Blocked” – 60 second radio ad

Announcer: “Health care bills. Every year, the cost goes higher…. Making it harder to make ends meet.

“But year after year, Congressman Charlie Dent opposed reforms to make health care more affordable.

“Congressman Dent’s gotten nearly 75 thousand dollars from the insurance industry while we’ve gotten stuck with runaway healthcare costs. And what do the insurance companies get? Record profits.

“Call Congressman Dent – tell him not to side with insurance companies… and start supporting real health care reform…

“To lower costs by forcing insurance companies to compete.

“Prevent companies from denying your coverage.

“And keep your current coverage if you’re happy with it.

“Tell Congressman Dent it’s not about insurance company profits. It’s about people.

“Paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, www.dccc.org . Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.”

The recession may be taking a toll on Pierce County’s Chambers Bay Golf Course. According to its latest financial report, the upscale public course in University Place is running a deficit of about $450,000 through the first six months of the year.

That’s in part because about 3,000 fewer golfers than budgeted played the course in the first half of the year. And many of those who did play the course took advantage of discounted rates offered late in the day. The average greens fee for the second quarter was just $88 per round; the county expected to average $107.

Also troubling: food and beverage sales – a bright spot last year – are coming in lower than budgeted.

Still, it’s too soon to declare the season lost. Last year also started badly at Chambers Bay. But a great third quarter helped the course eke out a small surplus for 2008.

You can download a PDF copy of the latest financial report here.

Update: The course's deficit to date actually is $710,729. That's about $450,000 more than the deficit the county budgeted through June. Like many courses, Chambers Bay expects to lose money early in the season, then make up for it when warm summer weather brings more business.

Bottom line: the course is about $450,000 off budget.