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Had I been good at math, I'd be a doctor or something. So, for now at least, I'm gonna let state Sen. Ed Murray, D-Seattle, explain why he thinks Referendum 71 may end up failing to make the ballot.
The referendum seeks to put before voters the issue of changing laws regarding gay partnerships – the so-called everything-but-marriage law.
Backers of the referendum (opponents of the partners law) turned in 137,689 signatures of voters. They need to have 120,577 valid signatures to make the November ballot. The secretary of state's office is now verifying the signatures to make sure they are from registered voters and are not duplicates.
That has left backers and opponents to speculate as to whether there are enough valid signatures. And they read the tea leaves of daily counts of valid vs. invalid signatures to feed the speculation.
Here is today's analysis by Murray:
Statement from Sen. Ed Murray on R-71 signature count
The current rate of invalid signatures reported by the Secretary of State’s office in the R-71 signature count gives me great hope that the referendum won’t make the ballot.
However, there’s a bit of confusion out there about how the count is trending because of an inconsistency in the math used to report the rate.
The Secretary of State’s blog first reported that the error rate had to stay under 14.2 percent for the referendum to qualify – referred to as ‘the cushion.’
That cushion was derived by dividing the number of signatures turned in (137,689) by the number needed to qualify (120,577) and subtracting 1.
With the cumulative invalid rate of 13.3 percent as of Wednesday, many have been led to believe that the referendum supporters are within their cushion.
“This is wrong.
That because in its subsequent reporting of the daily signature check, the Secretary of State’s blog reversed its math, dividing the number of signatures verified by the number examined.
It’s confusing when one method is used to determine the overall rates and the opposite method is used in the daily reports.
If the Secretary of State’s blog had first used the math that it is using now, it would have divided the total they need to verify (120,577) by the total number they will count (137,689) --and, again, subtracted 1 -- for a maximum invalid rate of 12.4 percent.
Or, if the Secretary of State’s blog were still using the math it began with, the current error rate would be 15.4 percent, rather than 13.3 percent.
We know that 15.4 percent is higher than 14.2 percent, and 13.3 percent is higher than 12.4 percent.
Either way, when consistent methods are used, the current rate of invalid signatures clearly suggests that R-71 won’t make the ballot.
