Actually the prediction came from Nick Handy, the state elections director. Handy reports that about 85 percent of the signatures have been checked. The sponsors of the measure, which seeks to repeal the latest expansion of gay partnership rights, turned in 137,689 signatures on July 25.

To make the November ballot, petitions must hold 120,577 valid signatures.

Here are the numbers so far: As of Wednesday 117,069 signatures had been checked, 103,198 have been approved and 13,871 have been rejected.

The signature error rate currently is 11.85 percent. The overall rejection rate must not exceed 12.4 percent for R-71 to go on the ballot.

“We have said all along that this signature count will be too close to call, and that is still the case,” Handy said. “We’re not going to announce whether Referendum 71 qualifies or not until all of the signatures are reviewed.”

Handy said public interest in this process is unprecedented.

“Our office has never received so much interest from observers and the public, and never before has the Office of Secretary of State provided daily updates to the public with an opportunity to ask questions and provide reactions on a blog,” Handy said.


Online daily updates about the R-71 signature checking process on its Web site, which can be found here.

Here is the Associated Press story on the latest federal court ruling on the legal challenges to the Top-Two primary.

OLYMPIA, Wash. (AP) — A federal judge in Seattle has refused to dismiss a legal challenge to Washington’s top-two primary system.

Secretary of State Sam Reed had asked the court to dismiss a lawsuit brought by the Democratic, Republican and Libertarian parties.

Even though the state’s top-two primary was upheld last year by the U.S. Supreme Court, Judge John Coughenour ruled Thursday the parties can continue to challenge how the primary is conducted.

The secretary of state’s office says the ruling means a new round of litigation that could change how candidates are listed on the ballot or in the voters’ pamphlet.

State Democratic Party Chairman Dwight Pelz said the ruling means the state will have to amend the current law.

In an e-mail to supporters, Faith and Freedom Network president Gary Randall, said Secretary of State Sam Reed is succumbing to pressure by the "homosexual lobby" and speeding up the verification of signatures on Referendum 71.

That speed up, Randall said, is causing the error rate – the percentage of invalid signatures – to rise artificially.

"The hurry-up plan was put in place as the homosexual lobby discovered that the faster the checkers checked, the more names were discarded as not valid," Randall said. He said Reed has expressed bias against social issues and the bad effect they have on success by Republican candidates.

"The liberal culture of Olympia and the Secretary's office for the most part is, I believe, a factor and very well may be the deciding factor on whether R-71 makes the ballot," Randall said.

Backers of the referendum, which seeks to repeal recently expanded gay partnership rights, submitted 137, 689 signatures. And while they only need 120,577 valid signatures to qualify for the November ballot, every referendum campaign has signatures of people who aren't registered voter, whose signature doesn't match what is on file or who signed more than once. If there are too many invalid signatures – at least 17,113 – the measure won't make the ballot.

UPDATE: The Secretary of State's office sent this in response to my request for reaction:

"The Elections Division is pushing back, strongly defending their process as free of bias for either side, and asserting that checkers are using great care and diligence in checking each and every signature – checking and even double-checking and triple-checking in some cases to make sure the process is as fair and even-handed as possible. The check is taking an entire month."

Here is the link to the secretary of state's blog, which includes more detail about the signature verification process.

Here is Randall's e-mail:

=> Read more!

That's the word from the Secretary of State's office, and those election folks are the ones who should know.

I got an e-mail on behalf of a candidate, someone who thought candidates were being unfairly (and illegally) denied access to homes in gated communities and could not doorbell. Her e-mail is below, but I deleted her name. She was well-meaning, but wrong.

Hi Joe,
Can you print some information for the public regarding the legal right of candidates to enter gated communities to campaign.
It would be useful to the great number of non-partisan candidates running this year.
I know there is precedent on this issue, but some people get very mean and threatening.
Thanks for your help.

…and no, this is not for me, it’s for others less experienced and the people who live out in the south county in all these new gated places.
Thanks!

Here is the official word from state election folks:

Joe,

Gated communities are private property. We don't know of any basis on
which candidates can demand to enter private property, even for purposes of campaigning.

=> Read more!

The secretary of state's office continues to examine the signatures submitted to place Referendum 71 on the November ballot. The measure seeks to repeal expansions of gay partnership rights passed during the last legislative session.

Here is a link to the latest report. It shows that if the rate of signature rejection stays where it is now the sponsors will end up with enough valid voter signatures to qualify.

Error rates do change during the process, however, so both sides will continue to monitor the process carefully.

Had I been good at math, I'd be a doctor or something. So, for now at least, I'm gonna let state Sen. Ed Murray, D-Seattle, explain why he thinks Referendum 71 may end up failing to make the ballot.

The referendum seeks to put before voters the issue of changing laws regarding gay partnerships – the so-called everything-but-marriage law.

Backers of the referendum (opponents of the partners law) turned in 137,689 signatures of voters. They need to have 120,577 valid signatures to make the November ballot. The secretary of state's office is now verifying the signatures to make sure they are from registered voters and are not duplicates.

That has left backers and opponents to speculate as to whether there are enough valid signatures. And they read the tea leaves of daily counts of valid vs. invalid signatures to feed the speculation.

Here is today's analysis by Murray:

Statement from Sen. Ed Murray on R-71 signature count

The current rate of invalid signatures reported by the Secretary of State’s office in the R-71 signature count gives me great hope that the referendum won’t make the ballot.

However, there’s a bit of confusion out there about how the count is trending because of an inconsistency in the math used to report the rate.

The Secretary of State’s blog first reported that the error rate had to stay under 14.2 percent for the referendum to qualify – referred to as ‘the cushion.’

That cushion was derived by dividing the number of signatures turned in (137,689) by the number needed to qualify (120,577) and subtracting 1.

With the cumulative invalid rate of 13.3 percent as of Wednesday, many have been led to believe that the referendum supporters are within their cushion.

“This is wrong.

That because in its subsequent reporting of the daily signature check, the Secretary of State’s blog reversed its math, dividing the number of signatures verified by the number examined.

It’s confusing when one method is used to determine the overall rates and the opposite method is used in the daily reports.

If the Secretary of State’s blog had first used the math that it is using now, it would have divided the total they need to verify (120,577) by the total number they will count (137,689) --and, again, subtracted 1 -- for a maximum invalid rate of 12.4 percent.

Or, if the Secretary of State’s blog were still using the math it began with, the current error rate would be 15.4 percent, rather than 13.3 percent.

We know that 15.4 percent is higher than 14.2 percent, and 13.3 percent is higher than 12.4 percent.

Either way, when consistent methods are used, the current rate of invalid signatures clearly suggests that R-71 won’t make the ballot.

State elections officials will start counting and verifying the 138,000 signatures on Friday. Whether the measure gets onto the November ballot will be determined by the error rate: How many bad signatures are there?

The historic average is 18 percent invalid signatures. Referendum 71 petitioners turned in only 14 percent extras, so they might just miss the cutoff. Stay tuned.

Here's a link to Dave Ammons blog over at the Secretary of State's office.

Tim Eyman alerted me and his "thousands of supporters" of this change, which gives initiative promoters one less day to gather signatures.

David Ammons, chief spokesman for Secretary of State Sam Reed, confirmed it.

Yes, they’ve sent out a memo to sponsors saying the deadline is July 2, because Friday, July 3, is a state holiday since the 4th falls on the Saturday this year. State offices will be closed that day, and the attorney general’s office told the Elections Division recently that the submission deadline is July 2.

Best,
David Ammons
Communications Director
Office of Secretary of State

Here's the word from Eyman...

=> Read more!

An alert reader (OK it was our own Sean Robinson) spotted a funny entry on the Washington Secretary of State's blog, "From Our Corner":

We’ve had lots of questions about the R-71 petitions, which by law are required to include 114-pages of Senate Bill 5688 text with the petition on just one sheet of paper. Just how did sponsors manage that one?

To see the photographic answer, click here.

Here are links to check up on candidate filings ...

Pierce County

Secretary of State

King County

Thurston County

That's what the British magazine The Economist recommends in this article in the current issue.

After pointing out that Washington resolved its budget problems quickly and that California is still struggling with them, it suggests two Washington political traits – a primary system that tends to elect moderates and a bipartisan redistricting process that resists gerrymandering.

(It actually calls our redistricting commission neutral. But a commission made up of two appointed Democrats and two appointed Republicans isn't neutral, it's compromised partisanship).

This just in from the Referendum 71 campaign to put Washington's new domestic partners law to a public vote:

Faith & Freedom PAC
June 3, 2009

Dear Joe,

PETITIONS AVAILABLE THIS WEEK!

Our petition draft & design team encountered a couple of unforeseen difficulties in laying the R-71 petition out, all of which they have overcome. Unfortunately, the problems did set us back a few hours and we will now go to print Wednesday afternoon, June 3.

We will begin our distribution as soon as the ink is dry.

=> Read more!