Pierce and King counties continued to fare well in stats released this morning from one of the most closely watched measures of housing markets around the country.

The Seattle area, which includes Pierce County, posted a 5.7 percent gain in the price of a typical house, not included condos, compared to August 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. That’s down from July’s gain of 6.9 percent but higher than any of the other 19 markets tracked. Most, in fact, declined year over year. (For some context, Pierce County’s median home price – houses and condos – rose 4.4 percent in August and fell 2.4 percent in September compared to the same months a year ago, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

One theory on the rise and fall of prices says those that rose the highest will fall the farthest and the fastest. That seems to be holding up in places like Tampa, Washington D.C., Las Vegas and San Diego, where the index says prices appreciated by at least 112 percent since 2000 and last month each saw depreciation between 7.2 and 10.1 percent. (By contrast, Seattle area prices grew by 92 percent since 2000.)

But that theory falls apart when looking at Detroit, where times are particularly tough. Prices fell by 9.3 percent year-over-year in August, according to the Case-Shiller index, with little price appreciation to fall back on. Of the 20 markets measured, Detroit also has seen the smallest growth in home prices since 2000 – just 11.6 percent in seven years.

Yet another online attempt to grab your real estate attentions comes from Rotten Neighbor.

Here you can post whatever you've ever wanted to say and never own up to about your neighbor. Some of the cleaner South Sound posts include "rowdy group," "drug house" and "seriously a nut case." I saw a handful in Tacoma, Fircrest and farther south, but the site is still fairly new. (One post I saw in L.A. used the first and last name of a supposed landlord -- a violation of the site's own legal terms. Another from L.A. not only (anonymously) identified a couple by their first and last names, along with unflattering comments, but the business they apparently own.)

Here's what the site has to say about its concept and how it might help you:
• Real estate agents will never tell you about bad neighbors.
• If a bad neighbor exists, this information should be made freely and easily available to everyone.
• More and more home buyers and sellers are looking towards the internet for guidance.
• The more bad neighbors you add, the better the service.

I'm wondering how any of these comments have even a hint of legitimacy, particularly given people can lob them anonymously. Would anyone out there use something like this to vet a neighborhood?

The site also has a blog, though posts are infrequent -- just seven since launching in late July.

I e-mailed the company yesterday to find out more about the site but no word back yet.

Obnoxious refinance junk mail has long been a reality of homeownership. The fliers land in your mailbox, sometimes several a week. They chide, they beckon, they entice.

But those with adjustable-rate mortgages could be in for a special refinance-flier onslaught.

This summer, six months before the rate on his adjustable mortgage is to reset, Jason Qunell began seeing such pitches. Many, many of the pitches.

They use phrases like “final notice” and include expiration dates or authorization numbers. One that Qunell received said: “Due to market conditions in the banking and finance industry and after reviewing your loan history we must inform you that your options for a new mortgage at a lower monthly payment may be quickly vanishing.”

Though Qunell plans to refinance with his original lender, he said the language and forcefulness of the marketing caused him some concern.

“Even the envelope they come in, they make it look like it’s from the bank that owns my mortgage,” he said. Qunell said he used an adjustable-rate mortgage because he was new to his commission-paid job and didn't yet have a long salary history for a conventional fixed-mortgage application when he bought in East Tacoma.

Doug Duncan, a chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington, D.C., told me last month that October through December will be the peak of new, higher rates – and pricier payments – for those whose adjustable rates are resetting.

Assistant attorney general Dave Huey, who specializes in lending fraud, told me last week that he couldn’t say whether his office planned to take any action against companies sending such solicitations.

“We’re seeing them more and more and, yes, we’re concerned,” he said.

Over and over, I hear real estate agents tell me the same thing about successfully selling a home: It has to be priced right. Especially in a market favoring buyers.

A story this week from The Record in New Jersey points to evidence that overpricing can end up hurting sellers more than it helps. The appraiser who conduced the research even recommends underpricing your competition to make a sale - any thoughts on that advice?

Here's the story:

HACKENSACK, N.J. _ Realtors often warn sellers about the danger of overpricing a house. Now they have evidence to show skeptical clients: research by Jeffrey Otteau, a New Jersey appraiser.

He found that in a market where prices are declining, sellers who "test the market" with a high price usually end up with a lower price than those who price realistically.

"Houses that are priced right are selling," said Otteau. "Overpricing extends days on the market and guarantees that you will sell your home for less in a declining market."

Otteau, of Otteau Valuation Group Inc., studied about 4,500 home sales that took place in the first half of 2007, largely in northern and central New Jersey. Most of the houses were priced between $500,000 and $750,000.

He looked at houses that sold in less than a month, and found that they had a median asking price of $599,900 and sold for almost full price - a median of $599,000. When he looked at houses that lingered on the market for more than a month, however, he found that they were priced higher - at a median of $634,900 - but actually sold for less, a median of $585,000. The median is the point at which half the sale prices are above and half below.

"Everything's a function of price," Otteau said.

With a high price, the house stays on the market as buyers ignore it in favor of lower-priced competitors. And in an environment of falling prices, a house that sells three months from now is going to command a lower price than one that sells today.

Otteau said that pricing a house a little below the competition not only catches buyers' interest - it also reassures them that they won't kick themselves later for overpaying if, as expected, home prices drift lower in 2008.

Otteau said that to find the right price, real estate agents should look at recent sales of similar properties, as well as what's currently on the market nearby. Then adjust for such factors as the amount of living space, number of bathrooms and bedrooms and the condition of the house. And if an agent sees that prices are trending downward, he or she should adjust for that, too. They should aim to underprice the competition.

"You can't just try for a higher price because you really want it," he said. "The way to get a higher price is to create a sense of urgency by setting a lower price."

You’ve asked for it and here it is: Stats that compare today’s Pierce County housing market with what was happening in 2002 and 2003, before the boom years.

Every month I do an update of Pierce County’s median home prices, number of closed sales and other stats. And every month I’m asked this: rather than compare today's numbers to the previous year, why not compare them to the pre-boom years of 2002 and 2003?

There are many reasons, but here are a few: The standard for evaluating any market is to compare today’s numbers with the same period the previous year. It’s hard to get a better apples-to-apples comparison. Also, when evaluating a market it’s unfair and selective to pick and choose the years you find most favorable or “normal” as the stick to measure against.

And though I wasn’t here in 2004 and 2005, I doubt many of you were clamoring to compare skyrocketing prices and sales activity to 2002 so there would be a more realistic or “normal” take on the market. Why not? The numbers then, unlike now, looked awfully good.

Nonetheless, it can be instructional to take stats and turn them in different directions for different perspectives.

Yesterday’s post had sales activity for each month this year compared to the same month in 2006. Here’s each month this year compared to the same month in 2006, then 2003 and 2002, and by what percentage closed sales in the county have since increased or decreased.

Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service

UPDATE

Thanks to web designer and Open House reader Corey Knafelz for passing along the code to make the numbers far more readable.

Numbers released today by the National Association of Realtors show continued declines in sales activity and prices for existing homes.

Nationally, prices were down 4.2 percent in September compared to the same month a year ago while Pierce County median home prices declined by 2.4 percent, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. (Pierce numbers include new construction homes while the NAR stats do not.)

The nationwide sales activity picture fared better last month than here, down 19.2 percent nationally in closed sales year-over-year, according to the Realtors. Pierce County sales were down 40.5 percent in September compared to the same month in 2006, according to the MLS.

To see how sales are trending locally for the year, here’s a look at year-over-year closed sales and by what percentage they declined:

• Sept.: 818, -40.5 percent
• Aug.: 1,120, -30 percent
• July: 1,141, -18.1 percent
• June: 1,215, – 24.3 percent
• May: 1,311, -15.7 percent
• April: 1,103, -16.9 percent
• March: 1,199, -22.2 percent
• Feb: 892, -11.1 percent
• Jan: 888, -10.3 percent

Another twist on the buyer bonuses that I wrote about for Sunday surfaced this last weekend: end of the year new-home sales. After the story was reported, written and sent on its way, I saw two big ads for such sales.

One was from Soundbuilt in Puyallup, one of the state’s largest home builders.

Though he declined this week to detail inventory numbers, chief operating officer Jonathan Koshar said the company wants to clear out finished homes so it doesn’t continue to pay for their financing costs. He mostly attributed the standing inventory to increasing the pace of production rather than slower sales activity or other market-related influences.

“Our time to build houses is less. Our quality in terms of finishing with zero defects has gotten much, much better,” he said.

Koshar expects Soundbuilt to sell at least 600 homes in 2007, around the same number it sold last year. He also expects buyers will continue to see deals before year’s end.

Soundbuilt’s promotion – up to 3 percent of the purchase price toward closing costs – is similar to previous buyer bonuses it’s offered, which have come in the form of $10,000 toward closing costs. Soundbuilt houses tend to be priced between $300,000 and $350,000, Koshar said.

You might not think about movers when you think about the slowdown in the real estate market.

But moving companies are thinking about home sales.

Some local movers say business has dropped off in recent months right along with the decrease in the sale of houses.

In September, Pierce County home sales were down 40.5 percent compared to the same month a year ago.

Sales at Bekins Northwest in Tacoma are off from last year by around 15 percent to 20 percent, said sales manager Kim Flannagan.

“Our industry is directly dependent on houses being bought and sold,” she said.

Small, independent companies are offering deep discounts to drum up business, she said, and so Bekins has stepped up with free packing materials and other offers to stay competitive.

Jim Tutton, executive director of the Washington Movers Association, said Thursday that he hasn't heard much from members about a dropoff in sales but that fewer homes sold does translate to a smaller need for paid relocations.

Greg Powell, vice president of sales at Star Moving Systems in Tacoma, said the slow winter season has arrived early.

“That has to do with homes not selling,” he said. “It’s not the end of the world. We’re not going to go out of business, but it’s a 5 or 10 percent drop.”

If you saw Hanna Heights at last year’s urban tour, you might not recognize this year’s Hanna Heights.

The floors and counters of the five-story building were redone based on feedback from those who previously toured the models, said real estate agent Julie Sargent, who's selling the units. Now you’ll find hardwood floors instead of carpet and granite slab counters in place of tile.

Prices range from $259,950 to $675,000.

One of the project’s more unusual features is its reliance on one-bedroom units, of which the building has 24 out of 35. (The fifth floor, however, has six two-bedroom condos and one three-bedroom.)

Sargent said the owner and developer, Prium Companies, wanted to make larger one bedrooms rather than small two bedrooms. The smallest unit is 832 square feet.

“It may be a drawback to have just one-bedroom, one-bath, but for the young urban professional, it’s a perfect-sized unit,” Sargent said.

Sales started in July with three pending, according to Sargent. Construction is about 95 percent complete, she said, with move-ins expected in November.

Here’s another Tacoma condo project I saw over the weekend: The Roberson.

The eight-story building has 47 condos, eight of them live-work. Prices range from $241,000 to $899,000. I expected the ones already with buyers to be among the cheapest of the bunch as often happens downtown, but the priciest live-work condo is gone as is the most expensive non-live-work, non-town home condo at $508,000. So far, sales on 15 of the units have either closed or will by the end of November, said Raelene Rogers, of McCament & Rogers, which is marketing the project.

The live-work units are three stories tall so they have a town home feel, with the work space on the bottom floor and a separate, sidewalk-level entrance.

Units at The Roberson went on sale in early 2007 but until last weekend were out of a sales trailer. Having units that potential buyers can wander through “makes a world of difference,” said J.J. McCament, also of McCament & Rogers.

“Once you’ve got something they can see for themselves, they can judge for themselves,” she said.

The condos, some with decks (the penthouse has four), are built around an internal courtyard.

Projects on the tour weren’t the only ones benefiting from the exposure. Next door at The Vintage Y, the last two – and largest – units were snapped up over the weekend.

“That’s a biggie,” said Rogers, who also marketed The Vintage Y. “What happened with the last two was The Roberson. People could not envision what their view would look like.”

In another case of online accuracy issues, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution this weekend uncovered some bad numbers from RealtyTrac – the SoCal research firm that tallies foreclosure-related filings. With the slowdown in real estate, RealtyTrac numbers are used widely and often to track the growth (compared to recent boom years) of foreclosures.

RealtyTrac tallies auction sale notices, default notices and bank repossessions to come up with a monthly foreclosure rate. According to the newspaper, however, hundreds of properties were counted twice in July and September. (Zillow also has faced some accuracy problems but of a different sort. Stats on houses, such as square footage or number of bathrooms, are sometimes wrong. Zillow attributes such issues to inaccurate county records.)

A RealtyTrac executive owned up to the mistake and revised its Atlanta numbers. I have an e-mail into my contact at RealtyTrac asking if these same number issues apply anywhere in Washington state. (Statewide, Washington has stayed consistently in the middle of the pack in recent months, though the company said foreclosure-related filings increased year-over-year by 61.6 percent.)

UPDATE
Here's what one of the company's PR reps e-mailed me this afternoon: "At this point we're not aware of this issue happening anywhere else so there will no(t) be any additional revisions."

After spending some time this weekend at Tacoma’s Tour of Urban Living, I thought we’d start the week with a look at one of the projects. I’ll follow up with a few more.

First up: Walker Condominiums

Reservations kicked off Friday for the 31-unit conversion and by noon on Sunday there were five. (Reservations require 1 percent down, which is refundable. The first units are expected to be done in February.) Maybe the food and drink had something to do with it – a spread that included lamb, cheeses, red wine, beer, cupcakes and stuffed mushrooms. And I’m no caviar expert, but I think I spotted some sitting atop a cracker on a slice of cucumber.

Condos range in size from 850 to 1,650 square feet and are priced $306,000 to $688,050. Among the amenities: Temperature-controlled wine storage, a gym, a suite to reserve for guests and valet parking. (No, you don’t have to tip the valet, because valets will be paid out of association dues – the answer to a commonly asked question, said sales manager Natalie Nuanez.) And a restaurant on the ground floor, Speakeasy, is scheduled to open late this year or early next. Condo owners can get room service from Speakeasy, which Nuanez described as having a swanky, 1930s feel with Northwest-influenced food.

Remaking a 1927 building came with challenges, including small kitchens and bathrooms, said Gwen Ingels, a managing director of Metropolitan Real Estate Development. So while Metropolitan wanted to retain as much of the original materials and look as possible, the condo spaces had to be redesigned and reframed to accommodate the larger rooms buyers want.

“The hardest thing was retrofitting the building for the new HVAC system. A/C is a big deal now when it wasn’t before,” she said.

Unlike some of the other downtown projects with for-sale units, you can’t yet go upstairs at the Walker. But there is one finished unit on the first floor.

A second Metropolitan project on the block, a new-construction condo building, has been dubbed Walker North, where work is expected to begin this spring. And the company has a project planned across the street for more condos and a grocery store.

Don’t forget about the Tour of Urban Living this weekend – a self-guided tour of downtown Tacoma condos and apartments. You’ll find 13 condominium buildings split primarily between the downtown core near City Hall and a group around South 23rd Street. (Though you’ll also find the Marcato between the two clusters and The Esplanade along the water.) Some have full-size models to stroll through and others have a sales center.

There are also three apartment projects. Hours are 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.

Go here for a map of what’s on the tour.

UPDATE
Some of the condo projects on last year's tour won't be reappearing, because they sold enough to not need another round or have hit delays, according to Roxanne Murphy, community relations specialist at the City of Tacoma.

Those with enough units sold:
201 Broadway, 201 Broadway
Bridge Condominiums, 744 Market St.
Classic Urban Townhomes, 2307 and 2309 S. I St.
Dorothy Condominiums, 301 N. Tacoma Ave.
Galleria, 2520 S. Jefferson Ave.
Triangle Townhomes, 408 6th St.
The Vintage Y, 714 Market St.

Those from last year's tour that have since been delayed, Murphy said:
The Ansonia, 219 N. Tacoma Ave.
Broadview Condos
Chelsea Heights, 603 S. J St.
Jay Heights, 613 St. Helens Ave.

And these are new this year:
505 Broadway, 505 Broadway
Lexington Square, 2303 S. G St.
Metro City Homes, 2131 S. Yakima Ave.
Walker Condominiums, 405 6th Ave.

Washington continues to stay middle of the pack when it comes to the foreclosure-related stats released every month by research firm RealtyTrac. The newest figures, released yesterday, rank Washington No. 22 in the country for September. The top five states, in order: Nevada, Florida, California, Michigan and Arizona.

Washington, however, did see foreclosure-related filings increase year-over-year by 61.6 percent, according to RealtyTrac.

In August, Washington was No. 27 and, in July, No. 20. (According to another group, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington ranks even lower. The association said earlier this month that the state was No. 48 for the percent of home loans in foreclosure in the second quarter.)

Nationally, foreclosure-related filings were down 8 percent from August, but were up 99 percent from September 2006, according to RealtyTrac. The company compiles default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions.

USA Today yesterday featured Tacoma as a part of the contrary isolated from the turmoil having its way with cities like Detroit, Miami and Las Vegas.

Here's an excerpt:

In many cities, home sales are suffering from the collapse of the subprime market and a wave of foreclosures. But Tacoma, Wash., is largely insulated from that turmoil.

In part, that's because the area is home to two military installations: Fort Lewis and McChord Air Force Base. And it has a leading North American seaport that's a gateway to Asia and Alaska.

Some new residents are drawn to the area for its proximity to three large national parks: Mount Rainier, Olympic and North Cascades.

Go here for a full look at the national take on Tacoma.

There are so few condo sales in some areas of Pierce County in a month, it’s difficult to get a good read on the market by isolating one neighborhood when examining the September MLS stats released Friday.

So in this case, I’ll break down some year-to-date numbers for a rundown of the first nine months of 2007 compared to the same period in 2006.

Overall, countywide condo sales January through September were up 13.3 percent, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Condominium prices for the first nine months countywide increased 5.3 percent.

Here’s a look at some of the areas that enjoyed the biggest price gains:
• Puyallup, up 12.6 percent to $204,950
• Fife/Milton, up 9.1 percent to $235,000
• Central Tacoma, up 16.4 percent to $291,000
• North Tacoma, up 18.4 percent to $245,975

The Gig Harbor area had one of the biggest price declines in the first nine months of the year: down 16.6 percent to $291,000.

One stat that jumped out of Friday’s monthly MLS numbers was closed sales, down 40.5 percent countywide in September compared to the same month in 2006. Year-to-date sales are off only 21.8 percent, so September could be one bad month or a sign of more deterioration to come.

Here’s a rundown of the communities that saw particularly slow sales activity when it came to single-family houses, all of which were off by at least half. These numbers compare September 2007 to September 2006.
• DuPont/Steilacoom: 19 sales, a 55.8 percent drop
• Puyallup: 113 sales, a 57.8 percent decrease
• Fife/Sumner: 43 sales, a 65.3 percent decrease
• Graham/Eatonville: 25 sales, down 50 percent

There was no area in Pierce County that held steady or saw an increase, but some of the smallest year-over-year declines for the sale of houses were in Gig Harbor (27.2 percent), Central Tacoma (21.9 percent) and North Tacoma (28.8 percent).

The real estate agents I talked to for Saturday's story thought such declines speak to a market correction rather than an indication of continued slowing. Any thoughts?

I’ll have more stats later today on how condo sales fared.

I'll have more stats later today and on Monday, but here's an early look at Pierce County's September housing market, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. (Area by area numbers don't get released until late in the day.)

• Sale prices were down 2.4 percent year over year, from $276,670 to $269,925.

• Closed sales were also down, by 40.1 percent.

• Listings continued to increase but at a slower pace than recent months, up 37 percent.

I met with the Pierce County Association of Realtors this morning, and they voiced concerns about light rail and other issues relating to qualify of life. But they are also very concerned that you think the sky is falling on today’s local real estate market.

“We know it’s not,” said Pat Maddock, president of the association, who – like a lot of agents – says the market is merely normalizing.

He says strong job and population growth will continue to fuel a balanced local market.

How you feel might depend on where you live and whether you’re a buyer or seller. In Browns Point, prices appreciated 9.7 percent and were also up (modestly) in most other areas year-over-year in August, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. But they dropped in Gig Harbor and the Lake Tapps area. (Numbers for September are scheduled to be released tomorrow.)

Countywide, sales activity is down in much of Pierce County as prices continue to rise, though at lower rates than in recent years. Other markets around the country, however, are seeing consistent price drops and far larger swells of inventory.

Look for more in tomorrow’s News Tribune on real estate marketing efforts to motivate buyers.

An updated index out this morning from the National Association of Realtors shows that pending sales nationwide are at their lowest levels since it started keeping track in 2001. The Associated Press story blames the high cost of jumbo loans, or loans for more than $417,000.

Anyone around here not able to buy a house because you couldn't land the $417,000+ loan you expected to get? Are agents seeing any fallout from the increased pricing on jumbo loans?

Here's the AP story, if you want the details on the Realtors pending-sales index:

An index that forecasts near-term home sales fell in August to a record low as would-be homebuyers had difficulty getting mortgages. Economists said the housing market’s woes show no sign of improving soon.

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes fell 6.5 percent from July and 21.5 percent from a year ago.

The pending home sales index has done a fairly good job of predicting sales levels over the following two months said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist with MFR Inc. in New York.

Shapiro and other analysts expect prices to fall further before home sales rebound. Developers are already making big price cuts to move unsold new homes, but existing homeowners are more reluctant to do so.

=> Read more!

Seattle's Washington Mutual said in a news release today that it will now require certain disclosures be made by brokers selling its loans.

The brokers will, according to the release, make clear to borrowers:
• Terms of the loan requested by the broker such as loan amount, loan term, whether the interest rate and mortgage payments may change and whether there is a prepayment fee
• How much the borrower will pay the broker for their services, including broker points, or administrative or processing fees and whether the broker has requested a yield-spread premium.

Also, WaMu says it will now attempt to call borrowers to go over the loan terms.

WaMu so likes its new standards, the lender is inviting others to join in. Said Kerry Killinger, chairman and CEO: "We believe our mortgage broker standard and direct call program should become the new industry benchmark for brokers and lenders across the nation."

For months, mortgage loan officers and brokers have been predicting the comeback of the FHA loan as lending guidelines have tightened. And, they say, the FHA loans could essentially be zero-down, with the help of other programs that supplement down payments.

But news today from Bloomberg could make such FHA purchases more difficult.

Here's an excerpt from the story:

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development today ended a down payment assistance program it said leads to higher prices and more foreclosures for home buyers, over objections from the House of Representatives.

The program let nonprofit organizations including AmeriDream Inc. and Nehemiah Corp. of America fund down payments for low- and middle-income home buyers, and be reimbursed by the sellers of the homes. It was used by more than 100,000 consumers last year and accounted for a third of all Federal Housing Administration loans.

Sellers sometimes try to recover the cost of the fee they pay nonprofits by raising the price of the house an average of 3 percent, a 2005 study by Congress’s nonpartisan Government Accountability Office found. The higher prices contributed to double the rate of foreclosures on homes paid for with FHA-backed assistance, agency audits found.

According to Bloomberg, the ban goes into effect Nov. 1. The story also said that Nehemiah and AmeriDream, the two largest providers of down payment assistance under this program, filed separate lawsuits in federal courts seeking to block HUD from implementing the new rule.