Two national pieces this week provide a point-counterpoint to the ongoing debate on where the bottom of the real estate market exists and where we might find it.

First, a Wall Street Journal column by a hedge fund manager who thinks the worst is over. Thanks to Dick Beeson, Windermere broker and MLS director, who forwarded me the piece.

An excerpt:

The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.

But then there’s the formerly-upbeat-but-now-skeptical David Lereah, the former forecaster for the National Association of Realtors. He’s profiled in a Newsweek column I came across at the LA Times.

An excerpt:

"We're not at the bottom," he says. "[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we're not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low … There's still supply out there in abundance … This thing is going to get worse before it gets better."

Year-over-year sales activity was all over the place in Pierce County in April, from an increase of 72.4 percent in Lakewood to a decrease of 62.7 percent in Central Tacoma, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Overall, county sales declined 18.9 percent in April compared to the same month in 2007.

Keep in mind that this is a one-month snapshot with some areas selling as few as a couple dozen homes during the month. It’s instructive, however, to look at where these areas were a year ago and are now as the spring selling season kicks off.

Here are the number of homes, including houses and condos, sold in each area with the corresponding rise or decline compared to April 2007, according to the MLS.