2 weeks for that article Brian? Come on! "No evidence of a bottom" Of course not. The foreclosure rate will continue to escalate and in time we should plateau with another few years of trendline 0% appreciation. We will resume 2-3% price appreciation within 5-7 years. There will be many GEMS in the coming years for Buyers. Take your time and find them.

Ray Pepper
Broker
www.500Realty.net

If the value of my home has gone DOWN, why haven't my poperty taxes?

I don't work for Pierce County...

When my tax assessment actually increased YoY from last year I went a little crazy...

I called the Pierce County Tax Office and I was told that my taxes were based on an average on 3 years of housing values. As my values changed my assessment would change slower due to the averaging; this would prevent steep increases in my taxes to my benefit and as a result would also prevent sharp decreases which would benefit the county... the average allowed the county and myself to budget better

I wasn’t happy with this answer but how could I argue it did make sense to me.
........................

Ray~ I agree the blog has suffered with the lack of blogging...

This article was predictable. I was arguing months ago with gigharbor undressed that some will spin that decrease in declining values = housing market turn around. Percentages only tell part of the story.

Devonna can now rest easy in knowing that people finally understand it wasn't the media that has caused this. Week after week she was bashed for telling the truth about what was happening and everyone kept pointing the finger at her and myself.
In the past few weeks the public was finally forced to take the blinders off and realize the true dilemma we are are in.

So, question...

If I am not selling or buying my home and I have a fixed loan (that I am comfortable with) and I have 30+ years before retiring and I have a stable employment situation what dilemma am I in?
~~I have found this a great time to buy into my mutual funds (via my Roth IRA and my husbands 401K) at the maximum match amount so I can maximize that free matching $$.
~~I have found this to be a great time to open savings accounts or buys CD's at a fantastic interest rates as banks are begging for cold hard cash deposits.

.......

I hate to think that I am the only person not really affected by this financial crisis... sure gas, food and clothing prices have gone up... but so has my income. Inflation was listed at 5.8% last I checked... ok my employer values the quality of my performance and I argued during my annual reveiw that she at least beat inflation if she wanted to ensure I would not look for a different job... she caved and exceeded my YoY pay increase... she proposed a 10% annual increase.

Have my investments lost value... Not really... I haven't sold them. Has my house really lost value... nope again. The mass media and our government want us all to think the sky is falling and everything is at a total loss.

We all need to pull our heads out of the sand and realize that if we make sound decisions we will be ok... we just have to go to work, pay our bills and live within our means.
..........

Sorry about the random rant... I had to get it off my chest and Ray opened it up with the dilemma comment.

Arnoldjim if you feel that you are not affected by this financial crisis then I applaud your good fortune.

Millions of people "pulled their heads out of the sand" in the last 5 years and made sound decisions. They also go to work and pay their bills. However, for what ever reason they may have to sell (we are a mobile society) and they will not be able to for many years. The substantial losses they will incur because of "timing" is truly very sad. I'm happy you don't need a loan now, have great medical coverage, stable employment, no need to sell your stocks, but I assure you that your net worth is far less today then it was a few years back.

Going forward your net worth in real estate and investments will also become less. Lets hope your good fortune continues!

Nobody will escape unscathed from the mess we are in!

Ray Pepper
Broker
www.500Realty.net

Arnoldjim- find wood and knock hard. I was feeling a bit smug for the same reasons until a month ago. A little episode with what I thought was the smog bothering me now has me on oxygen at night and having to look at retiring a lot earlier- possibly even a medical retirement- 10 + years sooner than expected.
So my advise is even if some are fairing the debt crisis better than other, be careful. Fate has a lousy sense of humor.

I'm sorry to hear that Idozy123. Best of luck to you and your family. Nearly everyone is 1 major illness away from Bankruptcy. It sounds like you will fair better then most medically and financially.

This latest press release confirms what I contend. We just have not seen prices in the NW come down enough yet. In my travels South I have witnessed 40-50% declines that now trigger buying. I suggest we have a long way to go.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/01/home-sell-buy-forbeslife-cx_fl_1002homes.html?partner=email

Ray, you say that people "won't be able to sell for many years," and yet homes are selling each day. They may not be able to sell for a huge profit, but they can still sell.
If sellers who are looking to move would realize that it works both ways, that they may sell for less than what they'd like but they're going to be able to buy for much less than they previously would have should they choose to buy again, it evens out.
Most sellers are also buyers. I'm fully aware that things are tough in the economy, but I'm shocked more people don't have Arnold's viewpoint (one that isn't one bit smug, I don't think). You haven't lost money on your house or in stocks unless you sell. Just like a house increasing 22% in value in one year doesn't make you any money unless you sell.
Houses are HOMES people, not JUST investments. They do, will continue to, and always have gone up and down in value, just like every other investment. They make much better shelters than stock portfolios, though.
Another question for our experts. Home prices are coming down. Rent prices are going up. Fewer people are buying homes, which means more people are renting homes. Can someone please explain to me why then this isn't a good time to buy a rental property or two?

"wont be able to sell for many years"

Gig have you seen the statistics of how many homeowners across the country are UPSIDE down in their home? I suggest you do some research and see why many people cannot sell. When you owe 350k and the house is worth 300k (or less) .....you cannot sell. The foreclosures will continue to mount over the coming years and due to lifes circumstances many MUST sell. The foreclosure rate in Washington will surpass other states due to the non recourse laws we have that allow people to walk from their 1st positions. People are not stupid GIG and when the time comes and they have to go, they will walk in record numbers. I'm daily looking into how the Mtg markets are changing their guidelines and what the FED is going to do to stop property values from falling. Some proposals I'm very encouraged by however, it will take at least 1 year till they begin
to work on a large scale and at least 2 years till we reach some form of bottoming.

I've been a student of the financial markets my entire life. Purchasing deteriorating assets or as they call it on the street "a falling knife" is very risky. The rental homes you suggest people to buy NOW is typical "nows the time to buy" Realtor lingo. I know you say its a long term invesment but I tell you this. When you purchase an INVESTMENT property its all about buying the best property you can for the least amount of money and the least amount of your personal capital.

I have been an investor all my life and currently own 18 residential and commercial units from a high of 27. I buy and sell homes all the time. Gig What I ask you is this:

Please give us all a specific MLS# of a property that you suggest is a GREAT DEAL and that you would suggest purchasing as a rental. I will analyze all aspects of the investment based on price, rental income, % down to acquire, depreciation, tax recoup, and factor in current market rental ratios which I know very few here have even heard of. If its a great investment then lets all take a peek at one you suggest.

I shouldn't have to explain to any Agent why purchasing a rental in Oct 2008, in Pierce County, is very risky (at best) of spending investment capital now. But, I welcome the opportunity to assess any proposal. Gig, its very easy to spend other peoples money. Show me just 1 property that you would advise a client to purchase NOW in our area.

I will advise you GIG and everyone else here that there are areas in Nevada and Oregon within 800 miles that properties have come down 50-60% that rent for over 1000 a month and with purchase prices of 130k will indeed be GEMS in the terms of cash flow and asset appreciation. It takes time and legwork to find these GEMS. When anyone decides to buy any investment property you 1st must know how to buy, when to buy, and where to buy.

Pierce county as of Oct 2008 is a declining market and buying rentals now must be assessed fully. Any potential Buyers I suggest to look for owner contracts where the owner carries the note. There will be many of these owner contracts coming into fashion again in Pierce County. Not having to utilize a bank in 2008 and 2009 will save thousands of investment capital. Negotiate terms with the owner based on current mkt conditions. You just may get a GEM of a deal!

(Btw buying a home is always an investmment. Don't let anyone tell you different! See you at The Home Show! )

Ray Pepper
Broker
www.500Realty.net

Wow...you just come right out and show your glaring insufficiencies. If your version of buying homes for investments means you look on the MLS and pay the asking price, no wonder you think things are so bad.
Some of us are willing to use other methods to find our investment homes (FSBO, talking to people, offering less than asking on an MLS price, etc).

Yes, some people are upside down in their homes. What are the foreclosure #'s now, Ray? Isn't it about 99.4% of folks with mortgages in WA are paying them and doing okay? That doesn't include all the folks with homes and no mortgages.

I don't ignore the problems, but I don't blow them up either. My home's sure not worth what I paid for it last July, but did I lose money? Nope. What if life happened and I had to move? Hmmm...rent prices are increasing, renters are becoming more and more numerous, I bet I could rent the place.

Our economy is down. Housing prices have taken a tumble. And still 99% of our population isn't losing their homes. For someone who owns so much property, you sure seem to discourage people from doing the same.

I'm not screaming the NAR mantra of buy now. I am asking why, if rental prices are up, home prices are down, and renters are more numerous, now isn't a good time to buy an investment property? What's better? Buy stocks right now?

Gig, wow so many ways to go with this. Personally, I always purchased direct from builders and the MLS. Foreclosure auctions my partners utilized for the last 20 years to purchase. Many now seem to use Craigslist as well. Paying asking price on homes listed on the MLS? Now thats funny.

"Yes, some people are upside down?" Did you say... "SOME" You cannot be truly that out of touch? Are you still using a dial-up?.....Some???

I strongly urge you to do some more research on KBH, LEN, CTX, COLB, WFC, WB, WM, and listen to what the CEO's of the Homebuilders and Banks are telling you. Listen to what their projections are for the coming decade.

Yes, I own alot or property. I hope I don't discourage anyone to do anything. But, the last thing I will tell anyone now is to buy a property without making a full analysis of why it is a good investment. Where is that MLS # ? Show me something that you would advise a client to buy? Any property? Share it with us.

Again, its very easy to spend other peoples money.

I will answer a few of your questions. I blog alot on Seattle Bubble and post most advice there but here is a tid bit...

**Put your money in the bank for now. There are 2 local CU's paying nearly 5%. Just hold cash.

**If you need to buy or want to buy then I suggest zip code 89403. (800 miles from here 10 miles out of carson City) The homes are less then 4 years old. Sold in 2004-5 for 165k went up to 300k and now many are in foreclosure at 150-165k. I suggest they will hit 130k in the next 6 months. They rent for 1000k a month. A pure GEM if you can knock 1 off at 125k. If you want to stay closer to home then look at Albany Oregon. In particular look at Coastal Crossings just off I5.

It is my belief Pierce County has a lot more to fall. This may be a stretch for some but I love cash-flow properties. Single-wide mobiles on their own land that you can find for 40-50k are great investments. I own 1 in Graham, 1 in Port Orchard, 1 in Shelton, and 1 in Olympia. They all rent for 750.00 + because they are great alternatives to apartments. They are not great to look at but its a double-ended investment. You can always sell to a builder because of the lot value and e septic/elec already functioning. Or you can upgrade the mobile. I have done neither. If you spend 50k even on a 9% int/only payment your outgoing is 375k plus t/upkeep. They are virtual doubles for an investor. These GEMS are like gold when you find one but do NOT spend over 50k! **Remember only buy a mobile on its own land..not in a park..The value of the mobile is 0. What you are buying is the land/improvements/ and are making the land cash flow with easy 30% returns.**

To summarize, put your cash in a 5% yield bank or find a GEM as outlined above in Washington. Rental property investments are best made out of state as of 10/2008 for the blood has been spilling alot longer and the prices are down 50%!

Gig, please give us at least 1 property you are thinking of investing in. Surely you will buy also correct? Give us the numbers. Remember we are real estate PROFESSIONALS. We give advice backed by facts. We don't ask for it!

See you at the Tacoma/Seattle Home Show this week and next. Mention any blog and get your free T shirt.

Ray Pepper
Broker
www.500Realty.net

Here are two MLS #'s that I bid on. 28147495---2386sf view home in Gig Harbor with a private community beach. Tax assessed at $576,900, sold 9-30 for $289k. Needed lots of work, but great upside.
MLS # 28128007--2638sf home in Gig Harbor built in '03. Started at $575k, dropped to $462k, sold 9-21 for $369,600.

I can't buy right now, Ray. I bought last July and my money's wrapped up in our current home. Did I say home? I'm sure glad my money's in my home that I brought my baby girl home to rather than in a piece of paper. I made bids at those 2 properties, but wasn't high enough on either.

SOME? Yes, SOME. My #'s are right, aren't they Ray? 99.4% of homeowners with mortgages aren't behind, right? That doesn't count all the homeowners without mortgages. SOME local residents are in trouble. Am I upside down because my house is worth less now than when I bought? Nope. I can afford my payments and I'm not moving...if I had to move I could rent for = or + cash flow. If you think that 0.6% of homeowners means that it's more than SOME, we use different lingo.

28147495..If you were able to have bought it for the 369k, or 325k, or 300k...What would you have done with it? Try and resell it? Rent it? Neither would work. No guarantee that it would sell to someone else in a reasonable time for a profit worth the risk...As a rental you would be way upside down...Poor investment unless you are going to live in it.

28128007....289k... No wayyyyy. Drop 50-80k in it and be sitting on that home at 360k trying to eeek out 420k. Good Luck. Check out my old home right up the street. She has tried to sell for 599, 550, 525, now 499k.. I sold it to her for 469k after buying it just a few years ago for 283k. 27045198..I love Sea Cliff and for my family it will always be a positive memory but I had to take profits and move-on. It was getting ridiculous in what the homes were selling for.

Gig the prices in the Harbor have a long way to drop. The following are the most ridiculously priced homes in the Harbor. Watch for a 100k drop or look for them as rent-to-own by the builder.
27205598
27205516
27207789

We just have far different investment styles. The investment game is far different then it used to be. The fly-by-night investors are all blown out now or have no cash or access to get it. Inevitably their holdings will end up in foreclosure. The real money will come to play in Pierce County in the coming years.

Just saw this piece of news:

Another big dip in Pierce County home prices

Home prices in Pierce County continued to fall in September, dropping to $241,950, a 10.4 percent decline from September 2007.

-------------------------

You know what is scary?? The median price for a Pierce County home in mid-2003 was only $175,000.

Southern California market recently hit their '03 median prices. Now I realize they had even higher gains than us so they will fall further but it is something to take note and compare.

What do you guys (who are still here anyway) predict the median price will bottom out at?

I'm going on record and saying we will bottom out around $195k. As a homeowner I hope I'm wrong but all indicators point south, waaaaay south...

I can't even predict how low the prices will go... it's not gonna be pretty if you have to sell and you bought during the last 8 years though... if you bought into the leass than 20% down risky loan mantra that was sold to soooo many!
.........................

The owner of the house across the street from me moved out 2 months ago... we have mowed the lawn and picked up trash in the yard... otherwise it would be a horrible eyesore in the neighborhood. No posting on the door yet and no agent sign... could it be a case of vacating prior to forclosure and how would we find out?? I dont mind caring for the front yard but shouldn't the bank do something soon?? I worry that this is the first of many to come in the Tacoma area.


Ray~ I know you and Gig have beaten this horse but I have to agree with him. If I have stable income, can afford my payments, not selling then I have not lost anything. I have my home. I purchased 18 months ago with 20% down... so technically not upside down yet if I did have to sell. And because I am a worrier we have liquidable assests apart form our retirement that will last us at current spend for a full year and two if we trim back. All are in 12/18 month CD's that beat inflation so I can keep my net worth stable. I know I might be overly prepared but my parents wouldn't "walk" me down the isle (15 years ago) if my husband to be couldn't prove to be debt free, with a year worth of gross savings that he had direct access to and seperate funds to buy our first home with a full 20% down. I hated my parents at the time because they delayed my wedding but now I am so happy they held their ground. They helped us learn how to be independant while we were still babe's wet behind the ears.
.................

We are teaching our children the same fiscal lessons and I will also demand the same things of both my son for his bride's security and of the groom that my daugther chooses. I don't think its wise to depend on others for anything... we are all human after all and therefore failable.
If I lost my job today I have marketable skills and would find something... anything... even double shifts if I HAD too... before the disgrace of loosing my home and ruining my finances.

@gigharborundressed

Some homeowners are under water?

There was a great article in the WSJ today called "Housing Pain Gauge". Stated 1 in 6 homeowners are underwater!

That equals 12 million households, or 16%, owe more than their homes are worth.

06' = 4%
07' = 6%
08' it's now 16%!
09' could easily end up being 20%+!

Among people who bought within the past five years, it's worse: 29% are under water on their mortgages, according to an estimate by real-estate Web site Zillow.com (this could be high but remember they do have all the purchase data to compare)

Gig, you've always been bullish which I completely understand given your profession. But you seem to really sugarcoat all this bad news like it's just not that big of a deal.

Last December you even made this comment:

"If you plan on being in your home for more than 2 years, your home will appreciate in value and you've made a good investment."

At the same time I had predicted that home values here might not see any appreciation in the next 5-yrs and your response was, "Purely ridiculous".

Really, do you still feel that way?

I'm honestly not trying to slam on you. You seem like a very good agent and I would recommend you to anyone I know as you seem to genuinely want to help people. But this situation is JUST starting to unravel. You may not feel the immediate affects like Wall St but this financial mess will cause a major ripple affect throughout the nation AND the world.

Boomer I believe he stated he was a teacher. I have no doubt he wants to help people. But, there is no excuse for the BS that Agents have been pumping the population for the last 5 years.

The evidence was all in front of us.

I sincerely hopes he returns to teaching. We need more great teachers. 38,000 Agents we do NOT.

I assure you he and all of us are feeling and will continue to feel this financial mess for the next decade.

Take your time Buyers. I assure you there is no rush. Find Your Gem, know how to buy, and enjoy your investment. Every home is an investment. People who declare its not are in error or denial. People will NOT continue to live in a home, pat taxes on it, insurance, and upkeep when they are upside down 15-50%.

This is the dilemma that will continue to plague housing until it corrects.

Boomer-

I'm not here to defend GHU but in what major media outlet do you recall predictions of this type global economic calamity appearing last December?

I certainly don't recall reading in the WSJ or Economist that we'd lose $2 trillion in investments before the end of the year...

I would submit that his profession has nothing to do with his take on the economy at that time. I know several journalists, private business owners, & excecutives of private co's and corps who felt we would be in for a economic contraction of a year or so, but nothing like this.

@Mike_T

Of course nobody could predict just how bad the numbers were going to be BUT the writing has been on the wall since last August. Ever since the Countrywide mess unfolded it was obvious they weren't going to be the only companies in trouble. You could see the decline in certain financial stocks that were heavy in sub-prime activity... that this was JUST the beginning.

And how about the subprime US figures from WSJ last October?

http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB119205925519455321.html

Remember these? This was discussed many times here on the blog. The numbers are staggering...

-30% of the home loans in '06 were subprime!
-Tacoma ranks in the TOP 10 cities for subprime (yikes!)
-The average appreciation over the last five years ('02-'07) in Tacoma was 76.09%!

This was clearly a recipe for a decline in the RE markets and has been discussed by MANY in the media...

The point I'm trying to make is it REALLY bothers me to hear agents try and glaze this data over like it isn't going to affect many people.

Mike, how much of a percentage decline do you predict we'll see in Pierce County?

Boomer don't waste your time. I tried for at least a year and consistently got Bashed here. In May of 2007 it became readily obvious what was going to happen. Seattle Bubble began posting the news. The CEO's of BZH, LEN, KBH, HOV, CTX, not to mention AXP and C all began to warn.

The prices nearly tripled in North Tacoma in 6 years and people expect it to come down just 15%. amazing.

Denial is very powerful when there is a vested interest. The question you asked about the % decline in Pierce County in the coming years has also been posted in many areas for those who wish to know the truth. I assure you this my home, yours, and theirs will all be worth less in 2009 and 2010 then it is today.

Ray Pepper
Broker
www.500Realty.net

Come to the Home Show this weekend and we can discuss it in person Sat or Sun.

Boomer-
I agree with your view of the market and remember those statistics. I too feel your frustration when I hear agents or or any other business person sugar coat or minimize this thing for their own self interest.

I simply would not lump Gig Harbor Undressed in with those agents who lie to or otherwise mislead their clients for a quick buck or because they lack the spine to be to tell their clients what they need to hear.

There were economists and politicians who just this past spring predicted the worst of the "downturn" would miss our area as our economy was "uniquely diversified & positioned to weather this storm" or words to that affect. I point this out simply to remind that there were many different "expert" opinions of where this would go and how long it would take to "bounce back". Why did they interpret the data as they did, I don't know. But I can understand how many members of the public remained bullish in their outlook at least through June of this year.

I presume you're asking about a decline in house values and not number of units sold. What time period are you speaking of and couldn't you ask me next week???

Right now I really don't know where we're going. I'm confident the market will remain stagnant, our politicians will continue to lie to us and all price ranges will continue to see a loss of value, some greater than others. But at what rate is the question. Until we see some sense of stability on Wall Street I really wouldn't begin to address. This is an unprecedented time.

Here's an interesting statistic. Year to date statistics for August 2008 in Gig Harbor (including Fox Island & the Key Peninsula) the number of residential units sold is down 39% however sales prices are down only 5.4%. However from July 2008 to Aug 2008 sales prices rose 3%. With a 39% drop in production and a 12.7 month inventory I'd expect prices to be hit a lot more than they were!

Yeah, I was wondering what your decline 'guesstimate' would be for the average home price in Pierce County before prices start to edge up.

We are currently at a median price of $241,950. How far do you see the median price dropping before it ever reverses?

23-34% off highs for Pierce County. Gig Harbor will edge to the higher end of spectrum while Tacoma the lower. The median home price of 250k will drop about 23% from highs until we see stabilization. This is a short-term perspective of 2009-10.

The foreclosure rate will continue to soar throughout 2009-10. Watch for many aggressive programs from Lenders to keep people from walking. It maybe the one time in your life that the Homeowner gets a deal of a LIFE TIME.

Stay Tuned.

@pepper

So you are forecasting a decline on the median home price to about $192k?

I had posted earlier I could see it going to $195k so we are in the same range. I reached that figure by looking at a Pierce County home appreciation chart up till '02, before the subprime levels inflated it.

You can basically just draw a line from '02 and use the past appreciate rates and home values end up around $195k... and this is being a bit generous!

Wow, I picked an interesting week to not read this blog!
Boomer, I'm not sure where the WSJ is getting those numbers. The last local numbers I saw showed that 0.6% of homes WITH mortgages in Pierce County were in SOME FORM of foreclosure.
I don't want to downplay our economic status. But I refuse to jump on the bandwagon of negative media screaming that the sky is falling.
Owing more than what your home is worth is a deceiving statistic. If you HAVE to sell, then it's an issue. If not, it's not a problem. Just like having tons of equity in your home isn't an asset UNTIL you sell.
YTD the median home price in Gig Harbor has dropped 5.8% from last year. That's not a huge number. My estimate in Dec that homes would be appreciated in 2 years doesn't look so accurate now, but I'd be surprised if we bottomed out as low as what you're saying.
Sales and pending sales are starting to pick up again, mostly with bank-owned homes. Prices will continue to come down as the bank owned homes become the comparables, but as sales pick up, prices will follow. I've said many times before we won't see the 20+% that we saw the past few years, but that's okay.
Even if I'm wrong and homes don't appreciate in 2-4 years, you still have a HOME. I won't lose my home because I can afford it, and our plan was to be here for 7-10 years. I can't live in a stock or a CD, but I can live in a house that I can afford.
I'm sorry that showing the positive in things comes across as sugar coating. I don't want to ignore the problems, but I refuse to join the masses and ignore the opportunities. There is good in this market, and that's where my focus will remain.
I also am sorry I've come across as bullish. Not my personality, but personality is hard to convey in blog posts. I think if you read my actual blog, you'll get a better idea of my personality...if that matters.
Ray, you get bashed because you are rude and offensive. Boomer isn't wasting his time because he's arguing respectfully. He clearly doesn't agree with me or my position, but he was very clear that it was my position and my views, not me, that he took issue with.
Thanks for your class, boomer...something I'll try to learn from.

@gigharborundressed

Thanks for acknowledging that I am not in anyway trying to personally attack you. I only disagree with your position and SOME of your statements and views.

As I have stated before I am not in the RE industry and have nothing to gain from trying to slander your character or business. I'm just a regular joe that likes to read and follow real estate trends.

So what number do you see as a bottom for the median price in Pierce County?

I'd be surprised if it went under $200k. I only deal in Gig Harbor, Port Orchard, and parts of Tacoma so it's really not something I can say with any surety. What goes on in Roy, Orting, Spanaway, etc is foreign to me. I believe real estate is local...hyper local. Many agents serve many areas, but I simply don't feel I can knowledgeably serve much of an area beyond what I currently do.
I think Gig Harbor's median will bottom around $400k (when I say GH, that includes Fox Island, but not Key Pen...KPN is a market unto it's own, very different from GH). Last month's median was $392k, so I believe we're getting close.
Some folks look at our market decline like a bungee jump...it careens down and then will bounce back up. I'd say it's more like a pendulum swing...slow at first, picks up speeed, drags along the bottom for a while, and slowly climbs back out.
Just my thoughts.

I'm sorry I'm rude and offensive to you. I cannot tolerate Real Estate "professionals" who give poor advice. Your investment picks are horrendous. Your clients or yourself would and will lose money.

Everything you speak is utterly incompetent. 5.8% price declines in Gig Harbor YTD?? Do you have any clue why this is? Do you not realize that virtually nothing is selling? Wait till the numbers catch up and the foreclosures continue to mount. You will see that 5.8% triple in very short time and then double again.

Gig, homes doubled in the Harbor over the last 5 years. The country is in the WORST economic condition since the Depression. You continue to post that we wont see the 20% + that we saw the past few years.

Are you truly this clueless? This seems like a bad joke being placed on me and your ficticious. You are posting inaccuracies under the veil of a Real Estate Professional. You are giving very poor advice and its very dangerous to the public.

Please everyone if anyone tells you they think prices will remain stable, we are at the bottom, home sales are picking up, then ask for proof backed by facts and statistics. Ask the "professional"-

What exactly will cause my home to increase in value going forward?

How will the foreclosure rate effect my investment going forward?

Will it be better for me to just rent at this time and not pay taxes, insurance, and upkeep since we are in a declining market?

What will happen to home value/sales if interest rates spike up?

What is the current status of unsold inventory? cancelled listings? Avg mkt time for a home on the market?

How much was this home in 2001?

Based on research, DD, and finding your own GEM then you just might make the deal of a lifetime in the next 5 years!

Ray Pepper
Broker
www.500Realty.net

A sure way of highlighting one's personal and professional shortcomings is to make personal attacks such as the one above.

It makes for good theater but horrible business.

Mike, his advice is very dangerous . I'm here to point that out. Call it personal attacks. I call it informing anyone thats still here, reading this blog, to ask questions 1st before purchasing anything in this environment.

He is very uninformed on what is happening and is spewing information to the public that may cost someone alot of financial hardship.

Mike would you purchase his 2 MLS listings he advised were good investments? I think not. Are you saying he has professional shortcomings as well? He is a teacher just as I'm an RN. Very respectable professions in their own right. I respect him, but not his erroneous advice.

Until he speaks the truth as a Professional Agent with research based on market knowledge I will set him straight.

Are you still upset about me bashing the development behind Target in Gig Harbor. The Bennett homes priced at 460k? That should be 350k at best? Hmmm? Have a vested interest over there?

Ray Pepper
Broker
www.500Realty.net

Thanks, Ray. You state "virtually nothing is selling." By that, I think the folks here should know that in Gig Harbor alone (not counting KPN), 376 homes have sold thus far this year. An additional 174 have sold on the KPN. So, 550 sellers have sold this year, when "nothing is selling." True, that's about 39% fewer than past years, but to say nothing is selling isn't true. Those 550 sellers know that things are selling.
For fun, I went and asked my neighbors about your thoughts. My neighbors, by the way, are the folks who bought one of the "horrendous" properties I mentioned. They laughed, said they're "thrilled" with their new home and still can't believe they got into it for only $369k. When I pushed further about how you think it's such a horrendous deal, their words rang so true. "Good, I'm glad he didn't buy it. We love it here and KNOW we got a good value."
It still is about HOMES Ray. FAMILIES, Ray. NEIGHBORHOODS, Ray. My incompetencies are simply viewpoints different than yours. You see the world one way, and anybody who disagrees with you is wrong and incompetent. Sad.
You're all news, theories, and fear. I remember that people are involved and people want homes and value. Value is determined by the buyer.
I didn't put my neighbors in that house. They bought it at auction. But that house was a good value for them.
For those who care, I'm done with this blog. I get very little positive from it, and as Boomer pointed out it makes me bullish and frustrated.
For those who would like, you can follow my thoughts on my own blog.
Thanks to those who provided positive conversation, sorry to those I pushed around or ticked off.

You're slinging mud Ray, I'm confident that people who have frequented this blog will recognize this as such. GHU is the one person who's sought to respond to you with reason and statistics. As such I believe you identified is as a threat to your point of view and that's why you attack him with such zeal.

I'm at a loss about what you're referring to re the Bennett development behind Target. I can't believe I would have defended them. Dense housing with a view of a loading dock and trash containers isn't my cup of tea at any price. Nope no connection there for me so that won't stick.

"Until he speaks the truth as a Professional Agent with research based on market knowledge I will set him straight." WOW! That speaks volumes...

@gigharborundressed

Thanks for your input. GigHarbor RE prices will be interesting to watch over the next few years as it has a much different demographic than the rest of Pierce County. All the demo details I've found are all outdated (yr 2000) but I would guess the income levels are much higher as well as median age. Beautiful place but I've always felt it has that 'retirement' feel.

What is the demo that you see currently moving into GH?

@Ray -- Always appreciate your feedback and think it's a great the service you provide but you're going to give yourself a heart-attack pounding the keyboard some day, lol.

@Mike_T -- I'd love you hear where you think Tacoma prices will bottom out?

Boomer- Well anything I say is a guess and really only based on a gut check. I would say that we could see Tacoma prices drop an additional 10% provided that interest rates remain relatively stable. Should they go up to anything above 7% then they could fall another 5-10%.

I do think we'll see some areas and price ranges be affected more so than others. For example the condo market downtown is certainly overbuilt with product only a small segment of the population want. Tacoma's emerging neighborhoods will slow in their "emergence". The upper end of the market has been and will continue to be troublesome in Tacoma.

Homes under $300K in Tacoma, UP & DuPont will do better than the upper price ranges, the same will be true of homes listed under $450 in Gig Harbor.

The gulf between median list prices and median sales prices are key. The following stats are YTD for Gig Harbor.

Median Active price for 2007: $499,900
Median Active price for 2008: $497,950

Median Sold price for 2007: $371,250
Median Sold price for 2008: $350,000

Well I apologize for running off another Agent. There are 37,000 I believe in the last check on the NWMLS. Gig will be replaced by another most surely.

I wish him the best and hopes he chooses to return to teaching. Lord knows we need great teachers and ALOT less Agents. For myself I will continue to Pound The Table that the "Buffet" is over for the conventional Realtor.

1% to List will become the standard and 2.5%-3% to the selling Agent will continue until the Big G comes evaporating the existence of the MLS system as we know it.

Real Estate is changing rapidly in favor of the consumer and I can hardly wait!

Come to the Home Show and lets talk Real Estate going forward. I have 6 free passes left for the Tacoma Show and 8 for the Seattle Show next week. If you need them have me paged at the door.



Ray Pepper
Broker
www.500Realty.net

@Mike_T

Don't worry all of us are guessing at this point =) But yeah, I'd say at minimum we'll see a 10% drop. Thanks for answering my question. I always like to hear agents or RE professionals projections on where the markets are heading that actually include some percentages and figures instead of the cop-out, "Well, we'll likely see a small dip..."

Oh the Tacoma condo market... really, what were these developers thinking?? The article in the Tribune today is sad but it's not shocking.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/business/realestate/story/504440.html

The Esplanade, the 162-unit on the Foss Waterway has not sold ONE unit. They are overpriced ($300k I believe is the starting price), nice view but you can't walk to anything from there due to the location ... and well, there really isn't much to walk to anyway, lol. The problem is you can still get a lot of home for $300k here in Tacoma. This isn't Seattle!

If I wanted a to spend $300k on a condo I'd spend that $$$ on one in Seattle, not Tacoma!

Even if the economy didn't nosedive I think the Esplenade would still have a hard time selling at full price. The architecture is reminiscent of Soviet style, the colors are depressing and I'll never understand the draw of overlooking a small waterway in an industrial setting.

To date no one has done it better than the developers of Thea's Landing. They have 3 floors of apartments & the top floor is condos with a stipulation that they must be owner occupied only, no rentals. The condo values have steadily climbed and the apartments have stayed at or near full occupancy.