Eric Williams covered the Sonics' last season in Seattle. A Tacoma native, Eric graduated from Mount Tahoma High and the University of Puget Sound.
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I wanted to take a closer look at Seattle's shooting woes and what a few of the problems might be. Using NBA.coms Hotspots, here’s a comparison showing the Sonics shot selection during the last five games of the team's losing streak, compared with Seattle’s shot selection during perhaps their best offensive performance of the season in a home win over the Toronto Raptors in December.
Sonics shot selection the last five games
During the last five games the Sonics are shooting 42.5 percent from the field, and just 30.4 percent from beyond the arc. Seattle primarily suffers offensively two different ways – poor ball and player movement that creates an inability to get good looks inside, and poor shooting from the perimeter.
Sonics shot selection in Toronto win.
In the Toronto game, Seattle got baskets inside by pushing the ball in transition, and moving the ball in their half-court sets, allowing them to get easy buckets inside. With a solid interior game, Seattle then got clean looks from the perimeter and finally knocked down some 3-point shots.
Against Toronto Seattle shot 47-of-84 (56 percent) from the floor, 10-of-17 (58.8 percent) from beyond the arc, and 19-21 (90.5 percent) from the free-throw line.
Part of the problem has been Seattle’s woeful shooting from beyond the arc. The Sonics are 18th in 3-point shooting in the league (35 percent) and 26th overall in shooting percentage from the floor (43.5).
Defensively, Seattle allows its opponents to shoot 38.3 percent from the 3-point line, second-worst in the league.
Three-point shots are a premium in the NBA because they are momentum-changing buckets that teams use to increase leads during the flow of games, or stop spurts by other teams. Seattle’s inability to guard beyond the arc, along with its cold shooting from the 3-point line has created a decided advantage for their opponents in the flow of momentum during a game.
Of course, Seattle is struggling in other areas as well, most notably stopping penetration defensively, defensive transition and turnovers.
But ultimately you have to put the ball in the basket in order to win consistently in this league.
COMMENTS:
I also see they took about 15% less midrange shots than during that 5 game stretch you showed and that matters too.
Using data developed from NBA hotspot charts for season at countthebasket.com I conincidentally recently found that Sonics have taken about 25% more midrange shots (outside the paint, from 8-24 feet) than league average and about 20% less 3 point attempts.
Sonics are 6th highest in league on % of shots from mid-range. Mid-rangers are generally the worst shots in basketball in terms of points yield per attempt. A few teams make it work like Detroit the league leader in midrange shot frequency. But Sonics apparently do not have strong enough midrange shooters to rely on it this much. This shot profile is a good indicator why the offense is the worst in the NBA on efficiency. They need some combination of more running for easy shots in the paint, better ball movement and play strategy & execution to get in the paint from the halfcourt offense and more good open 3 pt attempts.
Either Watson and Ridnour can execute the running game well or they can't. If they can't Presti needs to bring in a new PG. If the tape shows that PJ/Westhead's running sets are too predictable and easy to disrupt and defend then they need to change them and make it work or the other alternative waits.
Either Wilcox, Green, etc. need to get free for more good post plays by better execution or the plays get improved or both.
Either the current perimeter guys need to get more 3pt attempts up & in and be discouraged from taking as many mid range shots as has been their pattern (especially runners) or Presti need to bring in some guys who can get and hit more 3 pointers (to replace the guys he traded away).
Playing Wally even more could help a little but that isn't enough. Ridnour has been a low 3 pt attempt guy his whole career. Watson has curtailed his (and needed to from last seson) and so far that is working but that still leaves the problem of getting and making enough 3s. Durant is taking his share but is below average on hitting them so he isn't a candidate for expansion yet. Green can't hit em yet. Wilkins can hit it but he didnt do enough in some other phases of the game to stay out there.
These problems are large. But there are pretty clear.
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